The throw is worth more than anything else
We dealt 600 random six-card hands and compared the best possible throw with a random one. Keeping the best four cards gives a hand that averages 8.0 points with the starter. Throwing two cards at random leaves one that averages 4.8. That's more than three points a deal from one decision, before the crib, the play or anything else.
The best throw depends on whose crib it is. When it's yours, every point you put in the crib is yours too, so you can afford to split a strong pair or give it a five. When it's your opponent's, a good-looking pair of cards in the crib is a gift to them.
Two hands, two answers
5♥ 5♦ J♣ 4♠ 9♥ K♠
Throw the 4♠ 9♥ either way. Keeping 5-5-J-K averages 12.4 points, because each five makes fifteen with the jack and with the king, and the pair adds two more. Nothing else comes close, and the 4 and 9 are a fairly harmless gift (about 4.2 points in the crib).
2♠ 3♥ 7♦ 8♣ Q♥ K♦
Here the answer flips. In your own crib, throw the 7♦ 8♣: they're already a fifteen, so your crib averages about 7.2, and the 2-3-Q-K you keep is worth 6.8 (2+3+10 makes fifteen twice). In your opponent's crib, throw the Q♥ K♦ instead: a king and queen give them little to work with (about 4.2 points on average).
The game's Suggest button does this calculation for any hand you're dealt.
What every throw is worth in the crib
This table shows the average crib score for every pair of ranks you could throw, with the other two crib cards and the starter random. Read your two cards across and down. The darker the square, the bigger the gift; gold marks the best throw of all.
| A | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | J | Q | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 5.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| 5 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
| 6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| 7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| 8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| 9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 10 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
| J | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 |
| Q | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.0 |
| K | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
Computed by sampling 40,000 cribs for each of the 91 rank pairs. Real opponents don't throw at random (they keep their own good cards), so treat these as a guide to which cards help a crib rather than exact predictions.
Best for your own crib
| 5-5 | 8.96 |
| 5-J | 7.25 |
| 5-6 | 7.09 |
| 5-10 | 7.01 |
| 4-5 | 7.00 |
| 5-Q | 6.90 |
| 2-3 | 6.85 |
| 5-K | 6.82 |
Safest in theirs
| 10-K | 3.43 |
| 9-K | 3.52 |
| 8-K | 3.57 |
| 7-K | 3.58 |
| 9-Q | 3.58 |
| 6-K | 3.65 |
| 7-Q | 3.67 |
| 8-Q | 3.68 |
A few things stand out:
- A pair of fives is the best throw by a wide margin (nearly 9 points). Never throw it in your opponent's crib unless your hand is far better for it.
- 5 and jack beats 5 and any other ten-card. The jack can score one for his nobs when it matches the starter's suit.
- 2 and 3 is a strong gift even though it looks small: together they make fifteen with any ten-card, and sixteen of the 52 cards are ten-cards.
- King with a 10, 9 or 8 is the stingiest throw. High cards can only make fifteen with help from low ones, and a pair of high cards with a gap between them rarely ends up in a run.
Pegging habits that save points
- Lead a card under five. Your opponent can't answer it with a fifteen. A 4 is the classic lead.
- Don't lead a five. Sixteen of the 52 cards are worth ten, so a five is the easiest card in the deck to answer for fifteen-two.
- Avoid leaving the count at 5 or 21. A ten-card makes 15 or 31 from there.
- Think before you pair. A pair scores two, but it hands your opponent the chance at three of a kind for six.
- Be careful with cards one apart. Playing a 7 on an 8 invites a 6 or a 9 to make a run of three.
- Save a low card for the end. Near 31, being able to play when your opponent can't is worth the go, or the 31.
The computer's Sharp setting follows these habits. If you'd like to see them in action, play a few deals and use Suggest a card.